From Empirical Data to Mathematical Model: Using Population Dynamics to Characterize Insurgencies
John Sokolowski and Catherine Banks
Summer Computer Simulation Conference 2007 (SCSC 2007)
San Diego, California (USA), July 15-18, 2007
Abstract
Understanding the nature of insurgencies is critical to determining strategies for mitigating their effects. Modeling insurgencies is one method to provide a structured methodology to gain insight into the various characteristics of insurgencies. This study applied system dynamics to model insurgencies from both a regional and global population view. It used the system dynamics model to develop a population dynamics mathematical representation of insurgencies and the factors that control the flow of population members into and out of insurgency behavior. Pertinent factors were gathered through a systematic review of insurgencies throughout history. Additional review in the area of human behavior and group dynamics was also conducted to identify relevant factors. The study concluded that a system dynamics model could represent insurgency and counterinsurgency situations and that population dynamics was able to mathematically represent the system.